No – companies sometimes move through the business cycle without going into recession. ITR Economics’ business cycle has four distinct phases: Phase A, Recovery; Phase B, Accelerating Growth; Phase C, Slowing Growth; and Phase D, Recession.
Businesses, industries, and markets do not always go from Phase A to Phase B to Phase C to Phase D. A company or market in Phase C can have either a “soft landing,” in which it transitions back to Phase B and continues its growth trend, or a “hard landing,” in which it transitions to Phase D and contracts on a year-over-year basis.